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A deep learning model and associated data to support understanding and simulation of salinity dynamics in Delaware Bay

Metadata Updated: December 11, 2025

Salinity dynamics in the Delaware Bay estuary are a critical water quality concern as elevated salinity can damage infrastructure and threaten drinking water supplies. Current state-of-the-art modeling approaches use hydrodynamic models, which can produce accurate results but are limited by significant computational costs. We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict the 250 mg/L Cl- isochlor, also known as the salt front, using daily river discharge, meteorological drivers, and tidal water level data. We use the ML model to predict the location of the salt front, measured in river miles (RM) along the Delaware River, during the period 2001-2020, and we compare the ML model results to results from the hydrodynamic Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) model. The ML model shows RMSE = 2.52 RM during the five-year holdout period, superior to three overlapping years of COAWST model predictions, RMSE = 5.36 RM, however the ML model struggles to predict extreme events. Further, we use functional performance and expected gradients, tools from information theory and explainable artificial intelligence, to show that the ML model learns physically realistic relationships between the salt front location and drivers (particularly discharge and tidal water level). These results demonstrate how an ML modeling approach can provide predictive and functional accuracy at a significantly reduced computational cost compared to process-based models. Additionally, these results provide support for using ML models for applications in operational forecasting, scenario testing, management decision making, hindcasting, and resulting opportunities to understand past behavior and develop hypotheses. In this model archive, we provide the scripts and configurations to fetch data for the machine learning model, to process the data for the machine learning model, to run the machine learning model and to analyze the functional performance of the machine learning model.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Dates

Metadata Created Date September 13, 2025
Metadata Updated Date December 11, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date September 13, 2025
Metadata Updated Date December 11, 2025
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/usgs-6421bccdd34e807d39ba9099
Data Last Modified 2023-09-08T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 1e8354f5-f7a7-4cd0-a728-8ec13d32b15f
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash ce7e358500400a95ffec12e5174975fb8f78b59bda2f399a763c0e783e49403e
Source Schema Version 1.1

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