gov.noaa.nodc:0315948 eng utf8 dataset NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information ncei.info@noaa.gov https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/contact HTTPS NOAA Contact Information Information for contacts at NCEI. information custodian 2026-07-24T16:41:27Z ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) NCCOS Assessment: Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Habitat Projections in Plum Island Estuary (PIE), MA, 2040 to 2100 (NCEI Accession 0315948) 2026-07-24 publication 2026-07-24 creation NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information gov.noaa.nodc:0315948 NCEI Archive Management System 0315948 NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information ncei.info@noaa.gov https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/contact HTTPS NCEI Contact Information Information for contacts at NCEI. information publisher NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/ HTTPS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) website Institution web page information resourceProvider Ramin Familkhalili NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) ramin.familkhalili@noaa.gov https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/ HTTPS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) website Institution web page information principalInvestigator Ramin Familkhalili NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) ramin.familkhalili@noaa.gov https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/ HTTPS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) website Institution web page information pointOfContact NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) NCCOS Data Manager nccos.data@noaa.gov https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/ HTTPS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) website Institution web page information pointOfContact Nicholas M. Enwright USGS WARC (WARC) https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wetland-and-aquatic-research-center HTTPS USGS WARC (WARC) website Institution web page information collaborator Jordan Cosgrove USGS WARC (WARC) https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wetland-and-aquatic-research-center HTTPS USGS WARC (WARC) website Institution web page information collaborator Christine Buckel NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/ HTTPS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) website Institution web page information collaborator Familkhalili, Ramin NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science ramin.familkhalili@noaa.gov https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/ HTTPS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) website Institution web page information author Enwright, Nicholas M. U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wetland-and-aquatic-research-center HTTPS USGS WARC (WARC) website Institution web page information author Cosgrove, Jordan U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wetland-and-aquatic-research-center HTTPS USGS WARC (WARC) website Institution web page information author Buckel, Christine NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/ HTTPS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) website Institution web page information author NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/ HTTPS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) website Institution web page information contributor tableDigital This dataset contains spatial habitats projections for the years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100, generated by the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) for the Plum Island Estuary (PIE), Massachusetts. The raster data represent model projections of habitat classes resulting from an ensemble of inputs to account for both topographic and climate uncertainty. Topographic uncertainty was addressed via simulations run across three uncertainty-adjusted digital elevation models (DEMs representing the 20th, 40th, and 80th percentiles of elevation error) in addition to a baseline original DEM. Climate uncertainty was incorporated using three probabilistic relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios (Intermediate, Intermediate-High, and High), evaluating three statistical trajectories (17th, 50th, and 83rd percentiles) for the Monte Carlo DEMs, and the 50th percentile (median) trajectory for the baseline DEM. This data accession includes 120 total simulation results, each resulting from unique combinations of topographic uncertainty, climate scenarios, and time-steps. For example, the 40th percentile DEM paired with the 83rd percentile trajectory of the Int-High SLR scenario for the year 2080. The spatial resolution of the raster data is 3 meters, with results provided in 20-year intervals. These data provide spatially explicit projections of coastal habitats (water, wetlands, upland) under various topographic and climate uncertainty scenarios. This dataset was developed as part of the Coastal Ecosystem Prediction System (CEPS) project, a major partnership between NOAA and USGS. CEPS aims to create a national framework for advancing coastal ecosystem modeling, with an initial focus on marsh modeling. By providing short- and long-term predictions of marsh ecosystem change, CEPS equips decision-makers with the critical information needed to evaluate model performance, understand habitat changes due to SLR, and make informed decisions regarding land acquisition, infrastructure development or realignment, and land management tradeoffs. Funding Agency: NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science pending NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information ncei.info@noaa.gov https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/contact HTTPS NCEI Contact Information Information for contacts at NCEI. information pointOfContact asNeeded https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/metadata/landing-page/bin/gfx?id=gov.noaa.nodc:0315948 Graphic not available. PNG 0315948 NCEI ACCESSION NUMBER 2026-04-08 publication HABITAT SEA LEVEL theme NODC DATA TYPES THESAURUS GIS product model output theme NODC OBSERVATION TYPES THESAURUS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science dataCentre NODC COLLECTING INSTITUTION NAMES THESAURUS NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science dataCentre NODC SUBMITTING INSTITUTION NAMES THESAURUS East Coast - US/Canada Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Ocean place NODC SEA AREA NAMES THESAURUS oceanography theme WMO_CategoryCode 2012-09-15 publication DOC/NOAA/NOS/NCCOS > National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, National Ocean Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce dataCentre Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Data Center Keywords 2026 revision 24 Earth Science Data and Information System, Earth Science Projects Division, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Greenbelt MD https://forum.earthdata.nasa.gov/app.php/tag/GCMD%2BKeywords HTTPS GCMD Keyword Forum Page Global Change Master Directory (GCMD). 2025. GCMD Keywords, Version 21. Greenbelt, MD: Earth Science Data and Information System, Earth Science Projects Division, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). URL (GCMD Keyword Forum Page): https://forum.earthdata.nasa.gov/app.php/tag/GCMD+Keywords information custodian Coastal Ecosystem Prediction System https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/d3e9fac989b948dca95fc66445f7b4d6 NCCOS Project, Toward a National Coastal Ecosystem Prediction System, https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/project/toward-a-national-coastal-ecosystem-prediction-system project Provider Project Names EARTH SCIENCE > OCEANS > SEA SURFACE TOPOGRAPHY > SEA LEVEL theme Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Science Keywords 2026 revision 24 Earth Science Data and Information System, Earth Science Projects Division, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Greenbelt MD https://forum.earthdata.nasa.gov/app.php/tag/GCMD%2BKeywords HTTPS GCMD Keyword Forum Page Global Change Master Directory (GCMD). 2025. GCMD Keywords, Version 21. Greenbelt, MD: Earth Science Data and Information System, Earth Science Projects Division, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). URL (GCMD Keyword Forum Page): https://forum.earthdata.nasa.gov/app.php/tag/GCMD+Keywords information custodian Geospatial Model theme NCCOS Research Data Type Coastal Change: Vulnerability, Mitigation, and Restoration theme NCCOS Research Priority Climate Impacts Forecasting Predictive/Spatial Modeling Salt Marshes theme NCCOS Research Topic Coastal Wetlands Habitat type Marsh Migration Marsh Resilience SLAMM Modeling Sea-Level Rise Uncertainty and Variability theme Provider Keywords Model Output (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model - SLAMM version 6.7) instrument Provider Instruments OCEAN > ATLANTIC OCEAN > NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN OCEAN > ATLANTIC OCEAN > NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN > GULF OF MAINE place Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Location Keywords 2026 revision 24 Earth Science Data and Information System, Earth Science Projects Division, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Greenbelt MD https://forum.earthdata.nasa.gov/app.php/tag/GCMD%2BKeywords HTTPS GCMD Keyword Forum Page Global Change Master Directory (GCMD). 2025. GCMD Keywords, Version 21. Greenbelt, MD: Earth Science Data and Information System, Earth Science Projects Division, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). URL (GCMD Keyword Forum Page): https://forum.earthdata.nasa.gov/app.php/tag/GCMD+Keywords information custodian Geographic Areas > Estuaries Regions > Atlantic Ocean U.S. States and territories > Massachusetts place NCCOS Research Location Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Ocean Plum Island Estuary, MA place Provider Place Names 0JGK3M Send2NCEI Submission Package ID Data in this archival information package are not currently available for public download from NCEI. Please contact NCEI directly for access to these data. accessLevel: restricted public otherRestrictions Cite as: Familkhalili, Ramin; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Cosgrove, Jordan; Buckel, Christine (2026). NCCOS Assessment: Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Habitat Projections in Plum Island Estuary (PIE), MA, 2040 to 2100 (NCEI Accession 0315948). [indicate subset used]. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Unpublished Dataset. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/accession/0315948. Accessed [date]. Distribution liability: NOAA and NCEI make no warranty, expressed or implied, regarding these data, nor does the fact of distribution constitute such a warranty. NOAA and NCEI cannot assume liability for any damages caused by any errors or omissions in these data. If appropriate, NCEI can only certify that the data it distributes are an authentic copy of the records that were accepted for inclusion in the NCEI archives. otherRestrictions Use liability: NOAA and NCEI cannot provide any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of furnished data. Users assume responsibility to determine the usability of these data. The user is responsible for the results of any application of this data for other than its intended purpose. license This dataset has been dedicated to the public domain under a Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication. SPDX License: Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal (CC0-1.0) Sweet, W., Hamlington, B., Kopp, R.E., Weaver, C., Barnard, P.L., Bekaert, D., Brooks, W., Craghan, M., Dusek, G., Frederikse, T., Garner, G., Genz, A.S., Krasting, J.P., Larour, E., Marcy, D., Marra, J.J., Obeysekera, J., Osler, M., Pendleton, M., Roman, D., Schmied, L., Veatch, W., White, K., and Zuzak, C., 2022, Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States: Technical Report NOS.01, xiv, 95 p. 2022 publication https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70229139 HTTPS https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70229139 related dataset information Sweet, William author Hamlington, Ben author Kopp, Robert E. author Weaver, Christopher author Barnard, Patrick L. author Bekaert, David author Brooks, William author Craghan, Michael author Dusek, Gregory author Frederikse, Thomas author Garner, Gregory author Genz, Ayesha S. author Krastin, John P. author Larour, Eric author Marcy, Doug author Marra, John J. author Obeysekera, Jayantha author Osler, Mark author Pendleton, Matthew author Roman, Daniel author Schmied, Lauren author Veatch, Will author White, Kathleen D. author Zuzak, Casey author USGS Publications Warehouse publisher documentDigital crossReference sciencePaper Coastal Ecosystem Prediction System 2026 publication https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/d3e9fac989b948dca95fc66445f7b4d6 HTTPS https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/d3e9fac989b948dca95fc66445f7b4d6 Associated Online Resource information crossReference USFWS (2024). National Wetlands Inventory. 2024 publication https://www.fws.gov/program/national-wetlands-inventory HTTPS https://www.fws.gov/program/national-wetlands-inventory USGS Project Page information crossReference NCCOS Project Toward a National Coastal Ecosystem Prediction System 2026 publication https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/project/toward-a-national-coastal-ecosystem-prediction-system/ HTTPS https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/project/toward-a-national-coastal-ecosystem-prediction-system/ NCCOS Project Page information crossReference OCM Partners (2024). 2021 USGS Lidar: Central Eastern Massachusetts 2024 publication https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/69417 HTTPS https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/69417 INPORT Webpage information National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science publisher crossReference project Jordan E Cosgrove, Nicholas M Enwright, Michael J Osland, & Camille L Stagg. (2025). Digital elevation models with elevation uncertainty treatment, Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts, 2021 (ver. 2.0, May 2026) [Dataset]. U.S. Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.5066/p1ed6xkf 2025 publication International DOI Foundation (IDF) https://doi.org/10.5066/p1ed6xkf https://doi.org/10.5066/p1ed6xkf HTTPS https://doi.org/10.5066/p1ed6xkf related dataset information Cosgrove, Jordan E. author Enwright, Nicholas M. author Osland, Michael J. author Stagg, Camille L. author U.S. Geological Survey publisher tableDigital crossReference project Giblin, A., & Hopkinson, C. (2025). PIE LTER surface elevation table (SET) pin height data from twelve marsh sites in northeast Massachusetts. [Dataset]. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/468eee03bb78042f663dda443b6b952c 2025 publication International DOI Foundation (IDF) https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/468eee03bb78042f663dda443b6b952c https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/468eee03bb78042f663dda443b6b952c HTTPS https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/468eee03bb78042f663dda443b6b952c related dataset information Giblin, Anne author Hopkinson, Charles author Environmental Data Initiative publisher tableDigital crossReference project eng; USA utf8 environment oceans imageryBaseMapsEarthCover biota -70.9485 -70.7407 42.6463 42.8248 2040-01-01 2100-01-01 Habitat projections were generated using SLAMM (version 6.7). The model simulated habitat transitions based on initial habitat conditions (derived from National Wetlands Inventory and CCAP data), elevation, tidal datums, and localized accretion and erosion rates. To capture topographic uncertainty, a Monte Carlo error analysis framework was used to generate the corrected DEMs (Cosgrove, et al., 2025). The simulations were driven by probabilistic SLR projections localized for the study area (Sweet et al., 2022). NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information +1-301-713-3277 ncei.info@noaa.gov pointOfContact In most cases, electronic downloads of the data are free. However, fees may apply for custom orders, data certifications, copies of analog materials, and data distribution on physical media. Data in this archival information package are not currently available for public download from NCEI. Please contact NCEI directly for access to these data. 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User requests must be approved by NCEI and are subject to order fulfillment constraints. offlineAccess dataset Parameter or Variable: Habitat type (calculated); Units: Categorical; Observation Category: model output; Sampling Instrument: ● Model Output (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model - SLAMM version 6.7); Sampling and Analyzing Method: : Coastal habitats was simulated over time (2040-2100) using SLAMM Data Quality Method: Data quality for the habitat projections was ensured by implementing SLAMM version 6.7 using a standardized modeling workflow and site-specific parameterization for the PIE. The model’s time zero baseline was established by cross-referencing and verifying NWI and NOAA C-CAP land cover data to ensure initial thematic accuracy. To address predictive variability, the study employed a robust ensemble approach consisting of simulations that integrated four levels of topographic uncertainty via Monte Carlo-adjusted DEMs and three probabilistic SLR scenarios. This methodological framework, combined with localized accretion and tidal data, ensures that the resulting rasters provide a high-quality, probabilistic representation of future coastal habitat transitions rather than a single deterministic output, with full details on model calibration and sensitivity documented in Familkhalili et al., 2026 (Forecasting Marsh Resilience in the Plum Island Estuary: Integrating Uncertainty to Inform Coastal Management, ESCO). asNeeded Metadata are developed, maintained and distributed by NCEI. Updates are performed as needed to maintain currentness. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information custodian