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ABSTRACT SUPPLIED BY ORIGINATOR: Currently, the rate of global warming has led to persistent drought patterns. It is considered to be the preliminary reason affecting socio-economic development under the background of dynamic forecasting of water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semi-arid Chitral mountains of northern Pakistan are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537-2017. We reconstructed the March-August Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years back to A.D. 1593. Our reconstruction was featured with nine dry and eight wet periods 1593-1598, 1602-1608, 1631-1645, 1647-1660, 1756-1765, 1785-1800, 1870-1878, 1917-1923, 1981-1995, and 1663-1675, 1687-1708, 1771-1773, 1806-1814, 1844-1852, 1932-1935, 1965-1969 and 1996-2003, respectively. This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in west Asia, confirming its reliability. The analysis of the Multi-Taper Method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1-2.4, 3.3, 6, 16.8, and 34-38 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the broad-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of Hindu Kush mountain Ranges in northern Pakistan.</gco:CharacterString>
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