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          <gmd:keyword>
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For more details, see Chen et al., 2020.

To jointly model the spatio-temporal population dynamics and spatial habitat suitability of elkhorn corals Acropora palmata, we adopted the general framework of dynamic range models (DRMs; Pagel and Schurr, 2012) in which the demographic rates were related with a niche model that describes the response of population growth rates to environmental predictors, which were bathymetric depth, mean summer sea surface temperature, and maximum significant wave height in this study.

Bathymetric depth data were derived from high resolution remote sensing products including multibeam sonar and light detection and ranging (LiDAR; NOAA). Mean summer sea surface temperature data in June-August were derived from NASA Multi-Scale Ultra-High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST; NASA) and were downscaled from an original 0.01° spatial resolution to 50 m through bilinear interpolation. Maximum significant wave height data were forecasted by CariCOOS Nearshore Wave model, which was based on a Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model and validated by field observations from CARICOOS wave buoys (Anselmi-Molina et al., 2012). Wave data were downscaled from an original 1 km spatial resolution to 50 m through bilinear interpolation.

For the future climate scenario (years from 2016 to 2055), we assumed SST and significant wave height will increase at a rate of 0.19 °C decade−1, estimated from eleven global climate models (GCMs) downscaled for eastern Caribbean Sea based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 6.0 scenario (Kibler et al., 2015), and 0.03 m year-1, based on a 30 years wave hindcast from 1979 to 2008 in the Caribbean Sea (Appendini et al., 2014), respectively.

As with DRM framework, the latent population process was constructed with a spatially explicit, grid-based model, in which the local colonies in each grid cell is associated with neighborhood cells via dispersal on distance-dependent rates. Because the size of coral colonies is related to their contributions to population growth, a size-structured population model was used in this analysis instead of the Ricker model proposed in the original DRMs. The model was constructed with a hierarchical Bayesian approach and consists of three components: process model, data model, and parameter model. DRMs were fitted to the data using Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MCZS; ter Braak and Vrugt, 2008) sampler, an efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling (MCMC) method, with two independent parallel chains for 600,000 iteration steps each in total, in which first 350,000 samples were discarded as ‘burn-in.’ Convergence of the chains was assessed using the Gelman-Rubin diagnostic test and visual inspection of the chain histories. The initial abundance in each grid cell, which is required for dynamic range models, was estimated from correlative species distribution modeling method random forest (RF; Breiman, 2001) and quadratic multinomial logit model. For each of estimated parameters, 500 sets of posterior samples were drawn from the posterior distributions and used in the spatio-temporal simulations of population dynamics from 2014 to 2055. The mean and standard deviation of the 500 simulated predicted density distributions of each year between 2014 and 2055 were calculated for the final density predictions and uncertainty. Also included in this accession are supplemental rda data sets containing Bayesian posterior distributions (unitless) of each parameter estimated from 2013-2015 observations with Differential Evolution Markov Chain sampler, an efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling (MCMC) method, with two independent parallel chains for 600000 iteration steps each in total. This dataset was calculated and can be read in R using package ‘BayesianTools’. Processing and analysis methods are described in the reference publications.</gco:CharacterString>
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Units: Colonies per 30 square meter plot;
Observation Category: model output;
Sampling Instrument: Models/Analyses &gt; Data Analysis &gt; Environmental Modeling;
Sampling and Analyzing Method: Coral density in the initial year 2013 was estimated by the average of ten Random Forest predictions. Coral density of each size class were estimated by the average of 500 simulated current predicted (2014, 2015) or future projected (2035, 2055) spatial density distributions generated with 500 sets of posterior samples drawn from the posterior distributions of estimated parameters. The total density was a sum of colony counts in all four size classes. To better inform restoration and monitoring sites selection, predicted distribution of coral density in 2015 within potential habitats, defined as shallow water (depth ≤ 20 m) with habitable benthic habitat (including hardbottom, aggregate and patch coral reefs, pavements, bedrock, and scattered corals and rocks) were also provided. However, as future changes in benthic habitat is unclear, benthic habitat type was only applied to the last survey year 2015 and not included in the analysis for future projection. For more details, see Chen et al., 2020.;
Data Quality Method: Predictive coral distribution maps in the initial years 2013 were evaluated by multiple evaluation methods, such as the Pearson correlation coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE), average error (AVE), the slope and intercept of major axis linear regression fitted between the observed and predicted values, and Cohen's kappa statistic. Statistical analysis methods are described in the reference publications. Predictive coral distribution maps in 2014-2055 were compared with early local survey reports and reviewed by coral biologists. For more details, see Chen et al., 2020.</gco:CharacterString>
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                <gco:CharacterString>Parameter or Variable: Uncertainty (calculated);
Units: N/A;
Observation Category: model output;
Sampling Instrument: Models/Analyses &gt; Data Analysis &gt; Environmental Modeling;
Sampling and Analyzing Method: Uncertainty of predicted coral density in 2014-2055 were estimated by the standard deviation of 500 simulated predicted spatial density distributions generated with 500 sets of posterior samples drawn from the posterior distributions of estimated parameters. For more details, see Chen et al., 2020.;
Data Quality Method: Uncertainty maps were reviewed by subject matter experts. Analysis method was described in and supported by reference publications. For more details, see Chen et al., 2020.</gco:CharacterString>
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