{"@type": "dcat:Dataset", "accessLevel": "public", "accrualPeriodicity": "irregular", "bureauCode": ["026:00"], "contactPoint": {"@type": "vcard:Contact", "fn": "Elizabeth Foughty", "hasEmail": "mailto:elizabeth.a.foughty@nasa.gov"}, "description": "CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT**, AND SHAILESH SAROHA***\r\n\r\nClimate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists,\r\nand climate scientists to simulate and predict climate. Given temperature predictions\r\nfrom the top 20 climate models worldwide, and over 100 years of historical temperature data, we\r\ntrack the changing sequence of which model currently predicts best. We use an algorithm due to\r\nMonteleoni and Jaakkola that models the sequence of observations using a hierarchical learner,\r\nbased on a set of generalized Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where the identity of the current\r\nbest climate model is the hidden variable. The transition probabilities between climate models\r\nare learned online, simultaneous to tracking the temperature predictions. On historical data, our\r\nonline learning algorithm\u2019s average prediction loss nearly matches that of the best performing\r\nclimate model in hindsight. Moreover its performance surpasses that of the average model prediction,\r\nwhich was the current state-of-the-art in climate science, the median prediction, and least\r\nsquares linear regression. We also experimented on climate model predictions through the year\r\n2098. Simulating labels with the predictions of any one climate model, we found significantly improved\r\nperformance using our online learning algorithm with respect to the other climate models,\r\nand techniques.", "distribution": [{"@type": "dcat:Distribution", "description": "TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS", "downloadURL": "https://c3.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/publication/Paper_1.pdf", "mediaType": "application/pdf", "title": "Paper 1.pdf"}], "identifier": "DASHLINK_223", "issued": "2010-10-13", "keyword": ["dashlink", "ames", "nasa"], "landingPage": "https://c3.nasa.gov/dashlink/resources/223/", "modified": "2020-01-29", "programCode": ["026:029"], "publisher": {"@type": "org:Organization", "name": "Dashlink"}, "title": "TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS"}