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Spreadsheet of model drought-evaluation statistics for 2056-95 based on drought characteristics derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method assuming the Kruijt stomatal resistance curve in the future

Metadata Updated: January 7, 2026

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have evaluated projections of future droughts for south Florida based on climate model output from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) downscaled climate dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The MACA dataset includes both Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A Microsoft Excel workbook is provided which tabulates model drought-evaluation statistics for the period 2056-95 based on drought characteristics derived from climate models downscaled by the MACA method assuming the Kruijt stomatal resistance curve in the future. Model drought-evaluation statistics based on 6-mo. and 12-mo. averaged balance anomaly timeseries are provided for four regions: (1) the entire South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), (2) the Lower West Coast (LWC) water supply region, (3) the Lower East Coast (LEC) water supply region, and (4) the Okeechobee plus (OKEE+) water supply meta-region consisting of Lake Okeechobee (OKEE), the Lower Kissimmee (LKISS), Upper Kissimmee (UKISS), and Upper East Coast (UEC) water supply regions in the SFWMD. The balance anomaly timeseries are computed as the departure from the long-term monthly means of monthly balances (precipitation - reference evapotranspiration) for the period 1950-2005. Then 6-mo. and 12-mo. moving averages of the balance anomalies are computed and drought-event characteristics (duration, intensity and severity) are derived from the moving-average timeseries. The model drought-evaluation statistics include percentile rank of total future (2056-95) drought severity, percentage change in total future drought severity with respect to the historical period (1950-2005) and its percentile rank, as well as p-values comparing the joint distributions of model historical drought characteristics against those derived from observations, and p-values comparing model future to model historical drought characteristics. The lower the p-value, the more different the compared joint distributions of drought characteristics. P-values smaller than a chosen significance level (typically 0.05–0.1) denote models for which the joint distributions of drought characteristics are statistically significantly different.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Dates

Metadata Created Date January 7, 2026
Metadata Updated Date January 7, 2026

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date January 7, 2026
Metadata Updated Date January 7, 2026
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/USGS_668ec1ebd34e537145a78679
Data Last Modified 2024-07-16T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 0e39da0e-edfe-4e2d-be16-84124555a31c
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -83.5000, 24.0000, -79.5000, 29.5000
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 7a8c710640483424e9b7a9fd2ab133d36a4590032ce7dff6754917d163b535f0
Source Schema Version 1.1
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