Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Skip to content

Projecting Violent Re-Offending in a Parole Population: Developing a Real-Time Forecasting Procedure to Inform Parole Decision-Making, Pennsylvania, 2012-2014

Metadata Updated: February 14, 2023

The University of Pennsylvania, in collaboration with the Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole (PBPP), began developing a violent forecast model utilizing the machine learning procedure random forest. By the spring of 2013, the forecasts were provided to decision makers prior to parole interviews. The violent forecast model (VFM) measures the extent to which offenders are likely to reoffend as indicated by future arrest. The VFM is a violence classification forecast and not an individual case prediction regarding offender behavior. Purpose The purpose of this research was to evaluate the impact of introducing forecasts of "future dangerousness" into PBPP's decision making process during parole interviews. The researcher anticipated that having available a sufficiently reliable forecast, particularly within the violent category, would reduce the likelihood of a parole release. The null hypothesis tested was that there would be no difference in parole release decisions when comparing two similar groups of offenders where during one group of parole interviews the decision maker had a forecast available and the other group of interviews there was not a forecast available.

Access & Use Information

Restricted: This dataset can only be accessed or used under certain conditions. License: us-pd

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date February 13, 2023
Metadata Updated Date February 14, 2023

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOJ JSON

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date February 13, 2023
Metadata Updated Date February 14, 2023
Publisher National Institute of Justice
Maintainer
Identifier 4237
Data First Published 2022-02-10T08:59:47
Language eng
Data Last Modified 2022-02-10T09:08:10
Rights These data are restricted due to the increased risk of violation of confidentiality of respondent and subject data.
Public Access Level restricted public
Bureau Code 011:21
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://www.justice.gov/data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Datagov Dedupe Retained 20230214013206
Harvest Object Id 0c53aefb-5422-433a-a424-59ecf6b73aaf
Harvest Source Id 3290e90a-116f-42fc-86ac-e65521ef3b68
Harvest Source Title DOJ JSON
License http://www.usa.gov/publicdomain/label/1.0/
Program Code 011:060
Publisher Hierarchy Office of Justice Programs > National Institute of Justice
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 96c0b82e35e6092843d56bdd7ace319c8e2ba1d1
Source Schema Version 1.1

Didn't find what you're looking for? Suggest a dataset here.