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ICLUS v2.1.1 land use projections for SSP2 and RCP4.5 pathways

Metadata Updated: March 22, 2024

The methodology used to produce these projections differs from ICLUS v2.0 (https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/iclus/recordisplay.cfm?deid=322479). The demographic components of change (i.e., rates of fertility and mortality) for ICLUS v2.1 were taken directly from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (http://witt.null2.net/shiny/wic/). These projections were produced more recently than the Census projections used in ICLUS v2.0, and incorporate more recent observations of population change.

SSP2 is a “middle-of-the-road” projection, where social, economic and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns, resulting in a U.S. population of 455 million people by 2100. Domestic migration trends remain largely consistent with the recent past, however the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation.

RCP4.5 assumes that global greenhouse gas emissions increase into the latter part of the century, before leveling off and eventually stabilizing by 2100 as a result of various climate change policies.

Access & Use Information

License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Date March 14, 2018
Metadata Created Date March 22, 2024
Metadata Updated Date March 22, 2024
Reference Date(s) February 28, 2017 (creation), February 28, 2017 (publication), February 28, 2018 (revision)
Frequency Of Update

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Date March 14, 2018
Metadata Created Date March 22, 2024
Metadata Updated Date March 22, 2024
Reference Date(s) February 28, 2017 (creation), February 28, 2017 (publication), February 28, 2018 (revision)
Responsible Party U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development-National Center for Environmental Assessment (Publisher)
Contact Email
Guid C009CEAD-8841-4268-B13E-7D01C51F6010
Access Constraints
Bbox East Long -66.949895
Bbox North Lat 49.384358
Bbox South Lat 24.523096
Bbox West Long -124.763068
Coupled Resource
Frequency Of Update
Harvest Object Id 49911766-c105-4a79-b4b2-7bc7850efd4c
Harvest Source Id 9b3cd81e-5515-4bb7-ad3c-5ae44de9b4bd
Harvest Source Title Environmental Dataset Gateway ISO Geospatial Metadata
Licence None. Please check sources, scale, accuracy, currency and other available information. Please confirm that you are using the most recent copy of both data and metadata. Acknowledgement of the EPA would be appreciated.
Lineage
Metadata Language eng
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": [[[-124.763068, 24.523096], [-66.949895, 24.523096], [-66.949895, 49.384358], [-124.763068, 49.384358], [-124.763068, 24.523096]]]}
Progress
Spatial Data Service Type
Spatial Reference System 4269
Spatial Harvester True
Temporal Extent Begin 2000-01-01T00:00:00
Temporal Extent End 2100-12-31T00:00:00

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