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    • Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030

    Metadata Updated: August 22, 2025

    The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 to 2030 at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product Version 5, which provides a conservative estimate of global urban land cover. The authors then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create the population density driver map. They estimated the amount of new urban land in each United Nations region by 2030 in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities and probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030. To facilitate integration with other data products, CIESIN reprojected the data from Goode's Homolosine to Geographic WGS84 projection.

    Access & Use Information

    Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

    Downloads & Resources

    References

    https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109

    Dates

    Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
    Metadata Updated Date August 22, 2025

    Metadata Source

    Harvested from NASA Data.json

    Other Data Resources

    Additional Metadata

    Resource Type Dataset
    Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
    Metadata Updated Date August 22, 2025
    Publisher SEDAC
    Maintainer
    Identifier C1399902925-SEDAC
    Data First Published 2016-03-04
    Language en-US
    Data Last Modified 2025-07-17
    Category LULC, geospatial
    Public Access Level public
    Bureau Code 026:00
    Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
    Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
    Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
    Harvest Object Id 13a4fe0a-994a-4d5d-97ac-9a85672c614a
    Harvest Source Id 58f92550-7a01-4f00-b1b2-8dc953bd598f
    Harvest Source Title NASA Data.json
    Metadata Type geospatial
    Old Spatial -180.0 -90.0 180.0 90.0
    Program Code 026:001
    Related Documents https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109
    Source Datajson Identifier True
    Source Hash bbcc11214ed13fcdaeca0efd739dd20f16b0c201e7ec17f83e6ed2f8c9dd1bc3
    Source Schema Version 1.1
    Spatial
    Temporal 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z/2030-12-31T00:00:00Z

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