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Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030

Metadata Updated: December 7, 2023

The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 to 2030 at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product Version 5, which provides a conservative estimate of global urban land cover. The authors then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create the population density driver map. They estimated the amount of new urban land in each United Nations region by 2030 in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities and probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030. To facilitate integration with other data products, CIESIN reprojected the data from Goode's Homolosine to Geographic WGS84 projection.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources



Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date December 7, 2023

Metadata Source

Harvested from NASA Data.json

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Maps Download Page

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date December 7, 2023
Publisher SEDAC
Identifier C1399902925-SEDAC
Data First Published 2016-03-04
Language en-US
Data Last Modified 2016-03-04
Category LULC, geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 026:00
Metadata Context
Metadata Catalog ID
Schema Version
Catalog Describedby
Citation Seto, K., B. G�neralp, and L.R. Hutyra. 2016-03-04. Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030. Version 1.00. Palisades, NY. Archived by National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. Government, NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC).
Creator Seto, K., B. G�neralp, and L.R. Hutyra
Graphic Preview Description Maps Download Page
Graphic Preview File
Harvest Object Id 304b5c9f-7f77-4f62-9052-284da2490dc3
Harvest Source Id 58f92550-7a01-4f00-b1b2-8dc953bd598f
Harvest Source Title NASA Data.json
Homepage URL
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -180.0 -90.0 180.0 90.0
Program Code 026:001
Related Documents
Release Place Palisades, NY
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 57e5a0b20f68dd8fd8ca68b49429eacb49d5960c2776b8c43c1170864382daef
Source Schema Version 1.1
Temporal 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z/2030-12-31T00:00:00Z

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