Estuarine Back-barrier Shoreline and Beach Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities: Long-term sandline change

Metadata Updated: November 12, 2020

The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline (backshore) and beach sandline change for study areas in Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey. The models examined the influence of hydrologic and physical variables related to long-term and storm-derived overwash and back-barrier shoreline change. Input variables were constructed into a Bayesian Network (BN) using Netica, a computer program created by NORSYS Software Corporation that allows users to work with belief networks and influence diagrams. Each model is tested on its ability to predict changes in long-term and event-driven (i.e., Hurricane Sandy-induced) backshore and sandline change based on learned correlations from the input variables across the domain. Using the input hydrodynamic and geomorphic data, the BN is constrained to produce a prediction of an updated conditional probability of backshore or sandline change at each location. To evaluate the ability of the BN to reproduce the observations used to train the model, the skill, log likelihood ratio and probability predictions were utilized. These data are the probability and skill metrics for the long-term beach sandline change model.

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License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Metadata Date April 21, 2017
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date November 12, 2020
Reference Date(s) April 21, 2017 (publication)
Frequency Of Update notPlanned

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Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Date April 21, 2017
Metadata Created Date November 12, 2020
Metadata Updated Date November 12, 2020
Reference Date(s) April 21, 2017 (publication)
Responsible Party U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Science Center (Point of Contact)
Contact Email
Access Constraints Use Constraints: The U.S. Geological Survey requests to be acknowledged as originator of the data in future products or derivative research., Access Constraints: None
Bbox East Long -73.974687
Bbox North Lat 40.479022
Bbox South Lat 37.862809
Bbox West Long -75.382739
Coupled Resource
Frequency Of Update notPlanned
Licence This digital publication was prepared by an agency of the United States Government. Although these data have been processed successfully on a computer system at the U.S. Geological Survey, no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system, nor shall the act of distribution imply any such warranty. The U.S. Geological Survey shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and (or) contained herein. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof.
Metadata Language
Metadata Type geospatial
Progress completed
Spatial Data Service Type
Spatial Reference System
Spatial Harvester True

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