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Estuarine Back-barrier Shoreline and Beach Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities: Long-term sandline change

Metadata Updated: October 29, 2023

The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline (backshore) and beach sandline change for study areas in Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey. The models examined the influence of hydrologic and physical variables related to long-term and storm-derived overwash and back-barrier shoreline change. Input variables were constructed into a Bayesian Network (BN) using Netica, a computer program created by NORSYS Software Corporation that allows users to work with belief networks and influence diagrams. Each model is tested on its ability to predict changes in long-term and event-driven (i.e., Hurricane Sandy-induced) backshore and sandline change based on learned correlations from the input variables across the domain. Using the input hydrodynamic and geomorphic data, the BN is constrained to produce a prediction of an updated conditional probability of backshore or sandline change at each location. To evaluate the ability of the BN to reproduce the observations used to train the model, the skill, log likelihood ratio and probability predictions were utilized. These data are the probability and skill metrics for the long-term beach sandline change model.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Metadata Created Date June 1, 2023
Metadata Updated Date October 29, 2023

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI EDI

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date June 1, 2023
Metadata Updated Date October 29, 2023
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Identifier USGS:c2ff7d8a-f7d9-4757-ae11-67252e9b8863
Data Last Modified 20201013
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context
Metadata Catalog ID
Schema Version
Catalog Describedby
Harvest Object Id f4359017-14da-4a75-a7ce-801981f049c0
Harvest Source Id 52bfcc16-6e15-478f-809a-b1bc76f1aeda
Harvest Source Title DOI EDI
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -75.382739,37.862809,-73.974687,40.479022
Publisher Hierarchy White House > U.S. Department of the Interior > U.S. Geological Survey
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash a834fd27c3bf96dae60b10bba0df724d1c951e3f34255f5425c9958daeaaf1f1
Source Schema Version 1.1
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