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Chance of damage from an earthquake in 2016 based on peak ground acceleration

Metadata Updated: October 29, 2025

A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. It represents the chance of experiencing damaging earthquakes for a fixed ground shaking level that corresponds with MMI = VI, based on a peak ground acceleration value of 0.1155 g for site class D. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model described above.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

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Dates

Metadata Created Date September 13, 2025
Metadata Updated Date October 29, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date September 13, 2025
Metadata Updated Date October 29, 2025
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/usgs-571e866ce4b071321fe567fc
Data Last Modified 2020-08-18T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 4b3bc0d9-62dd-42de-b55e-ed320bd1d17c
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial -113.7, 24.6, -65.0, 50.0
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash de76003cd629fda57631c218fcfa53ec3a48e222c726bd4810d18a9550aa4e37
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -113.7, 24.6, -113.7, 50.0, -65.0, 50.0, -65.0, 24.6, -113.7, 24.6}

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